The 2017 UK General Election

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A number of newspapers and think-tanks commission opinion polls to predict which way people are likely to vote in upcoming elections.

Opinion polls also help economists and marketeers estimate trends and behaviours before they happen. However, as was demonstrated all too clearly in 2016, the polls can get it wrong.

If you believed the polls in 2016, Britain would still be in the European Union and Hilary Clinton would be the President of the United States. Of course neither of these eventualities came true, so it’s certainly worth taking poll data with a pinch of salt.

Each polling agency asks slightly different questions.

The 2017GeneralElection.uk Aggregate Poll is the mean average of all polling data recorded in the current calendar month. Comparisons are against previous month’s aggregate data.

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To fully understand the polling data below, here are the questions that the people surveyed were asked:

MORI: How would you vote if there were a General Election held tomorrow? Would you vote… Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat [rotate order] or for some other party

ICM: If there were to be a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Conservative/Labour/Liberal Democrat/Other?

YouGov: If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know

Populus: If the general election was tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Would it be [rotate order] Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or another party – or would you not vote at all?

Communicate Research: If there were a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party?

NOP: If you do vote in the next general election, which party will you vote for – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, or some other party?

Below are the data collected in national polls since the beginning of April 2017.